Distance-running fans probably shouldn’t be looking for a sweep in any of our events. But that’s not to say Team USA doesn’t have high hopes for middle-distance medals, which apparently all include an actual chunk of the original Eiffel Tower…?

At the 2016 Olympics, Matt Centrowitz memorably won the damn thing and Jenny Simpson claimed bronze. That was the last time two Americans scored medals in the 1500m at the same global championship. Simpson also took home silver at Worlds in 2017 – that’s the last 1500m medal won by an American.

We’re not exactly saying “this is the year the drought ends!” But we are packing an umbrella.

Nikki Hiltz put on a tactical masterclass in their Trials victory, and also demonstrated the ability to close off an already fast pace. Their 3:55.33 is the sixth fastest mark posted this year. But right there as well are Emily MacKay and Elle St. Pierre, whose Trials performances rank as the next two fastest globally. St. Pierre qualified in the 5000m as well, but she’s likely to only run the 1500m in Paris.

So what exactly are their medal chances? Despite dealing with injuries, Faith Kipyegon is a virtual lock – as proven by her 3:53.98 season opener, solo and at altitude for the Kenyan Trials. Six Ethiopians have run 3:57 or faster, but the best of them – Gudaf Tsegay – is probably going for the 10,000m and/or the 5000m. The other five have only won one outdoor medal combined, but they’re also a pretty young crew: Hirut Meshesha is the oldest at 23. So they’re talented, but largely unproven.

There are others in the field who can, and have, beaten the Americans before – namely, Jessica Hull and Laura Muir. But there’s no suggestion that with the way Hiltz et al. are running, these two are head and shoulders above their competition. It’s safe to say that the race for silver and bronze in this event is pretty evenly matched.

The men’s field will feature Josh Kerr, the reigning 1500m champ and fastest miler in the world this year at 3:45.34, and Jakob Ingebrigtsen, whose 3:29.74 showing in Oslo leads all 1500m times. But despite the amount of fanfare surrounding their rivalry, neither man seems entirely invincible, even if they’re the favorites. No matter how the final in Paris plays out, there are potential spoilers whose racing styles may prove advantageous – three of them Americans.