Women’s 3000m Steeplechase | Prime Time For Madie Boreman

For much of the past decade, the United States steeplechase scene has grown accustomed to having former World champion and Olympic bronze medalist Emma Coburn and Olympic silver medalist Courtney Frerichs as staples on the national team for global championships. While Colleen Quigley held onto the third spot at all the global championships from 2015 to 2019, the third spot has gone to a new face in each of the last two years. At the 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials, Val Constien burst on the scene, and last year’s U.S. Championships was a continuation of a steller outdoor season for Courtney Wayment coming off an NCAA title and record. Constien tore her ACL in her season opener at the Doha Diamond League in May and is out for the rest of the season. Wayment, who made last year’s World Championship final, will certainly still be a contender.

However, former Colorado Buff (now working in her alma mater’s athletic department assisting football coach Deion Sanders with recruiting) Madie Boreman looks to play a potential spoiler. She came into the season with a personal best of 9:33.02 from last year’s NCAA Championships but has lowered it to 9:22.99 in her first pro season while working with coach Juli Benson. She went two-for-two in regular season steeplechase races with wins at the Drake Relays and LA Grand Prix – winning both races by nearly three seconds. This will be her third time at a U.S. Championships and she’s only gotten better each time. - Chris Chavez

Women’s 10,000m | Big Cat Energy For Natosha Rogers

With a personal best of 30:48.69 from earlier this year, Puma Elite’s Natosha Rogers is one to watch for in the women’s 10,000m. Although she's ranked fourth heading into USAs, I think she has a solid shot at making the team. Alicia Monson is pretty much a lock for taking the title (her personal best of 30:03.82 speaks for itself), but the next two spots remain uncertain. Elise Cranny and Karissa Schweizer are currently ranked second and third in the entries, but neither have run a 10,000m in the last year–which makes me question how ready they’ll be to take on the distance. Their personal bests are 30:14.66 and 30:18.05, respectively, but neither performance is as recent as Rogers’ 30:48 from four months ago. Since she qualified for Team USA in 2022, Rogers might not seem like a dark horse. But she’s heading into the meet ranked outside of the top three, so a spot on the 2023 team is anything but guaranteed.

How it happens: Alicia is going to do what Alicia does and take the race out at an honest pace. Chances are high that she'll drop the field and let the lead pack fight for the next two spots. I predict that Rogers will hang onto Cranny and Schweizer for the majority of the race, and then will increase the pace in the last 1k to secure third…or maybe even second! - Jasmine Fehr

Women’s 1500m | Is Emily Mackay The Next Big New Balance Star?

If there’s one thing New Balance Boston coach Mark Coogan knows how to do, it’s spot underleveraged talent at NCAA programs across the Northeast, take them into his professional fold, and turn them into stars. Elle Purrier St. Pierre was an NCAA mile champion at UNH, but she improved her mile PB from 4:26 to the American indoor record of 4:16.85 as a pro and made the 2019 World team in the 5000m, an event she never ran in college. Heather MacLean had a 1500m best of 4:19.19 at UMass and is now an Olympian with a 3:58.76 PB. Providence alumna Millie Paladino took her collegiate best of 16:23 in the 5000m down to 15:02.63 in three years.

So when Binghamton University’s Emily Mackay, whose career-best NCAA finish was 6th, joined NB Boston in the fall of 2022, the rest of the track world barely noticed, but diehard Coogan acolytes knew exactly what he was up to. It didn’t take long: during the 2023 indoor season, Mackay notched PBs of 4:26.09 in the mile and 8:40.75 in the 3000m. She finished 3rd at the U.S. indoor championships in the latter, ahead of former NCAA champs like Elly Henes and Courtney Wayment. And she really turned heads outdoors in two low-key meets: first, she won the 800m at the Adrian Martinez Classic in 2:00.17 in pouring rain, then down in New Jersey, she knocked 6 seconds off her 1500m PB and defeated Empire Elite’s Helen Schlachtenhaufen with a 4:01.52. That puts her #5 on the U.S. list this season.

The big argument against Mackay making the team is simply that the 1500m is too good right now. Even with St. Pierre out on maternity leave, defending U.S. champ Sinclaire Johnson looked sensational in a solo 4:00.77 effort at Stumptown last weekend and veterans Cory McGee and Nikki Hiltz are running stronger than ever on the international circuit. Mackay’s teammate MacLean has had a quiet outdoor season so far following an early-spring IT band injury, but she’s coming off an indoor mile PB of 4:23.42 and has only gotten better at championship racing since making the Olympic team in 2021. And Schlachtenhaufen, who’s changed sponsors and coaches in the last two years, has been on the cusp of making her first global team for the last several seasons.

How it happens: Mackay has a strong set of tools that will serve her well in a variety of races, but her best bet is likely a quick pace from around halfway out. A slow race and a crowded 100-meter dash to the finish will likely favor runners like Johnson and Hiltz, whereas a hot pace from the start could get the relatively inexperienced Mackay, racing her first pro championship with heats, in trouble.

If Mackay finds a good position near the front and someone like McGee starts a serious push from 400 meters or more from the finish, she could find herself gapping the late closers just enough to end up in the top 3. It’s also entirely possible that Mackay is already a 3:57 runner who hasn’t yet had the chance to show the world, so maybe it’s simply a matter of getting her in a race fast enough to demonstrate it. Either way, there’s a chance many casual track fans will be Googling her name on Saturday. - David Melly

Men’s 10,000m | It’s Gonna Be A Bloodbath!!!

On paper, predicting an upset in this race is a dumb thing to do. Grant Fisher and his 26:33.84 North American record should be a lock. Woody Kincaid is knock-knock-knocking on sub-27’s door and possesses one of the most electrifying last laps in the business. Then there’s ol’ heady, steady Joe Klecker. That should be the team right there. But if things go sideways, the obvious next man up is Paul Chelimo. Twice a global medalist at 5000m, Chelimo debuted over 25 laps earlier this season in 27:12.73.

However, for your consideration: Conner Mantz. Mantz is a grinder. Just look at the banner image of his World Athletics profile. That contorted face tells you everything you need to know – and given his 1:00:55/2:08:16 pedigree, inviting the field into the hurt locker is his best shot at making the team. Fortunately, with the specter of Woody closing in 53 seconds looming large over the field, Mantz won’t be alone in hoping for an honest pace. Early forecasts are calling for warmer temperatures (80º+ for the men’s 10,000m) so if the pace is hot, too, we’re looking at a race of attrition, which plays right into Mantz’s hands.

How it happens: He’ll put his foot on the gas from the jump, pulling the field through 27-mid pace through the first three kilometers. At this point he can drop back, start drafting, and trust that Fisher or Klecker will take over without easing up. As the sun-warmed track gives off those foreboding li’l heat shimmers, weird things will start happening. Great athletes will struggle. And since the four favorites are all also declared for the 5000m, maybe one or two of them will opt to shut things down if they fall off the pace, and put their eggs in a 12.5-lap basket. Mantz just needs to stay in the mix, administering jab after jab to anyone left standing after 8,000 meters. And as demonstrated by a recently set 3:37.92 1500 PB, if he’s still in contention with a lap or two to go, he’s got a fighter’s shot at eking out a top-three finish. - Paul Snyder

Men’s 100m | Can A Never-Before Finalist Win A Medal?

If you make this team then you can win the medal. That’s the sort of thing all athletes are told ahead of the U.S. Championships, and after last year’s World Championship sweep of the 100m men’s final there is no event where it is more true. Fortunately the deepest sprint nation in the world will be afforded a fourth spot as the defending world’s fastest man Fred Kerley gets a bye to Budapest and will therefore be focusing his efforts on the 200m in Eugene.

In what could be the next Lindsay Lohan blockbuster, Noah Lyles and Fred are trading places as the 200m World Champion will contest the 100m. His season’s best of 9.95 is the 7th fastest American this year, but a win would not surprise anyone. Last year’s World Championship silver medalists Marvin Bracy-Williams has shown glimpses of form with a season’s best of 9.93 (+0.8), but his last three outings in June have paced behind. And the bronze medalist Trayvon Bromell had a fantastic indoor campaign highlighted by a 6.42 60m before suffering an achilles injury in March. He is back on his feet having run 10.10 and 10.09 in two Diamond Leagues. While both of these guys have the talent and proven history there are some question marks. Does that open it up to the possibility of someone like Cravont Charleston making the team?

How it happens: The NC State graduate has never made a US final before. In fact, the 25-year-old never even made an NCAA final. Entering the 2023 season, Cravont Charleston had broken 10 seconds for 100m exactly one time, having run 9.98 (+1.5) last summer. But things have changed! After opening in 9.87 (+3.0) to win the Mt. Sac Relays he then followed it up with a wind-legal 9.91 (+1.0) at the LA Grand Prix for second behind Ackeem Blake. Since then, he has two recent wins in Finland going 9.95 (+0.1) and 9.90 (+0.9).

Charleston’s strength right now is his consistency. If any of the big dawgs don’t bring their A game then Cravont will be there to eat their lunch. He has a strong start and his first few steps might see him out front early with Coleman. If Charleston can maintain that quick cadence then there may be a lot of people asking, “who is that?” But not you. Because you heard it here first. - Kyle Merber

Men’s 1500m | The Holtmania Breakthrough

The Men’s 1500m appears to be a contest of 4 favorites fighting for 3 spots on the team. There’s last year’s champion, Cooper Teare, who has run 3:32 this season and will be looking to repeat. His former Oregon teammate, 2021 Olympian Cole Hocker, also appears to be rounding into form at the right time and will be looking to contend for the title. The fastest entry in the field is OAC’s Yared Nuguse who has run 3:29 this season and made some noise on the international level. And then, we have Hobbs Kessler. The 20 year old phenom has run 3:32 this season and will look to back up his success with his first ever trip to Worlds.

After those 4 favorites, we come to the rest of the field, which features many talented men looking to sneak onto the team in the famously-tactical event. In the middle of that field we find a runner who has quietly risen the 1500m ranks to place 4th at USA’s last year, but still comes into this race as an underdog. Empire Elite’s Eric Holt may not have the fastest time, or the deepest resume, but he’s shown that he knows how to compete. He picked up a win over a talented field in New York last weekend and also seems to be ahead of where he was this time last year. He ran a season’s best of 3:37.07 in that race last week, an 800m PB of 1:47.40 the week, and has had some super impressive workouts logged on Strava recently. Momentum and confidence has to be on Holt’s side.

How it happens: I think Eric Holt’s best chance of making this team is to hope the race gets tactical and to make a push for the final spot in the last 200m. Holt positioned himself really well at last year’s championship but just went too early- he moved to the front with 350m to go and ultimately missed the team by one spot. He may not have the fastest kick in the field, but Holt has same pretty great closing speed over 200-300m. If he can stay patient and wind up over the last 300m, I think he can pick off some guys in the homestretch.

Don’t get me wrong though; it will be VERY hard for Eric Holt to make this team. There’s a ton of talent in the 1500m right now. There’s guys who are favorites over him because they’ve run faster, guys who have had more experience, guys who have more blistering kicks. But if there’s one thing Eric Holt has proven, it’s that you can never count him out. This is a man who never made an NCAA Championship, didn’t run fast enough out of college to run pro, and who fit in running between working overnight shifts at a hospital once out of college. And yet he’s risen the ranks to be one of the elite 1500m runners in the United States. The odds have always been stacked against Eric Holt, but he doesn’t care. In fact, he seems to embrace it; it’s a chip on his shoulder that he’s aware of and that drives him to compete with the best. I don’t know about you, but if anybody in this field is going to snatch a surprise bid to Worlds, I want the man who’s made a career off of beating the odds. All in on Holtmania, baby. - Gary Martin