By Kyle Merber
June 10, 2026
Which athlete winning would generate the most chaos? The answer to that question is generally also the most fun athlete to cheer for. We’re in the content business, and a major upset makes for good content!
We love Keely Hodgkinson; her unabashed pursuit of records and fearless racing make her easy to root for. We love Mondo Duplantis; it’s not often in sports you know you get to watch a GOAT at the height of their powers. And although we were not hoping they’d lose, per se, it was certainly exciting to see someone else win two events that have felt rather predictable of late. Sports are supposed to be chaotic! A heavy favorite can dampen the excitement of competition because sometimes it feels like the outcome is already a predetermined conclusion.
Leagues around the world do whatever they can to promote parity between their teams. The NBA is currently experiencing a golden age of parity. With the Knicks and Spurs squaring off in the finals, the winner will ultimately become the eighth new champion in eight years. In that time span there have been a total of 14 different teams that have vied for a title.
The NBA has been able to pull off this balancing act, partly, by implementing a two-apron luxury tax system that heavily penalizes owners for trying to buy successful teams. Rather than just financial punishment, teams in the second apron are limited in their ability to sign free agents, operate in trades, and could even lose draft picks.
It’s why Formula 1 has such strict rules around how the cars are engineered. It’s why baseball is considering a salary cap. And it’s why the worst NFL teams always get the next star quarterback.
From a league’s perspective (remember: leagues are also in the content business) this is a dream—it means more fan bases across the country are engaged on opening day, and remain engaged deeper into the season. That’s because every team… except maybe the Sacramento Kings… could possibly turn things around in the blink of an eye to become a contender.
World Athletics can’t do any of that. The only levers our sport’s governing body can pull are providing resources for youth development, incentivizing top athletes to race against one other, and getting rid of rabbits.
But with so many events, is it even that big of a deal that a few that are being singlehandedly dominated? We don’t hear too many complaints about Faith Kipyegon or Ryan Crouser being bad for the sport (along with Duplantis, they’re the only actively competing athletes who have won five straight global titles). That’s because while leagues and newsletter writers love parity, fans tend to love stars, too. They’re familiar while being historic, and people ultimately like to appreciate greatness.
In a way, the presence of these Old Faithful-esque performers provides a nice contrast to events like the men’s 1500m, which hasn’t had a repeat winner since Asbel Kiprop in 2015. But the unpredictability has made it one of the most interesting events to follow for the last decade, and there’s only so much hype that a growing win streak can generate.
Mondo hadn’t lost a competition of any sort since July 2023. The last time someone else won a global pole vault championship was Worlds in 2019, when Mondo was still a teenager and finished second. While the pole vault has never been this deep—we have 10 active jumpers with lifetime bests of at least six meters—it doesn’t make for the most spirited internet debates when those dudes are all theoretically jumping for second.
If you sat down with Kareem Rahma on Subway Takes and told him, “I think it’s good that Mondo always wins,” then he’d most certainly hit you with a “100% disagree!”
The excitement of just about any Mondo-involved competition at this point hinges on a world record clearance (which, to be fair, he’s done plenty of times). In fact, his era of dominance has been so thoroughly one-sided that it’s tempting to call his performances exhibitions instead. That is, until the unthinkable happened! Kurtis Marschall got one on the board with a 5.90m clearance in Stockholm. He’s a 29 year old three-time global medalist and he only just won his first-ever Diamond League meet.
Had you wagered a parlay on both Mondo and Keely losing in Stockholm then you’d potentially have enough money to get into tonight’s game at Madison Square Garden. Heading into Sunday, Hodgkinson was 12-0 lifetime against Audrey Werro. Although the two have raced regularly since being junior standouts, it was hardly a rivalry. The question leading into the race was not, “Who can beat Keely?” But “how fast can Keely go?”
Faster than ever before, it turns out! Hodgkinson’s 1:54.33 was a personal best and good for number six all-time. But Werro’s shocking finish changed the dynamic of the event. She ran 1:53.98. That means this season is no longer just about Keely breaking records—it’s about who can manage to get under the 1:53.28 world record first.
Another event that has become polarized at the top is the men’s 800m. Similar to the pole vault, the event has never been better. But it’s in need of some new blood. Since the 2021 Olympics, Emmanual Wanyonyi has won 4 out of 5 global championships. And the podium of Wanyoni, Marco Arop, and Djamel Sedjati has recurred three times in the past four years.
Cooper Lutkenhaus’s historic win in his first Diamond League race wasn’t just a huge moment for kids who still have bedtimes, it also cemented Lutkenhaus’s entry into the event’s true upper echelon. Beating Arop in 1:42.70 confirms what most of us already knew—last year was not a fluke. It also means there is a fresh new face in the 800m this outdoor season who could break up the increasingly standard trifecta.
For most readers of this newsletter, it would be an unthinkable delight for Cooper to win the World Ultimate Championships this year, the World Championships next year, and then secure the Olympic title on home soil come LA 2028. What a dream that would be! If the top young prospect in the world delivered on all the promise and expectations, then he should get a Lebron-esque “Chosen 1” tattoo across the top of his back.
After that though… it might be nice to let someone else have a turn. Let’s hope Cooper Lutkenhaus is so fortunate in the next few years of his career that, one day, we celebrate when he loses.
Kyle Merber
After hanging up his spikes – but never his running shoes – Kyle pivoted to the media side of things, where he shares his enthusiasm, insights, and experiences with subscribers of The Lap Count newsletter, as well as viewers of CITIUS MAG live shows.
