The final World Marathon Major of the now-seven-race series is set for this weekend. Two-time finisher Mayor Mamdani and several million of his constituents prepare to host the 57th edition of the New York City Marathon, the largest 26.2 mile race in the country and, depending on how London goes each year, the first- or second-largest in the world.

There’s plenty of intrigue in this year’s race—and not just the intra-CITIUS MAG battle between Chris Chavez, Mac Fleet, Kyle Merber, and Eric Jenkins that will have us all glued to our tracking apps. Defending champ Hellen Obiri will try to make history as just the fourth three-time champ in the race’s history, and Benson Kipruto will look to claim his fifth career World Marathon Major title, something only two men in history have done: Eliud Kipchoge and Wilson Kipsang. Repeat victories for either or both would solidify their respective cases for the best marathoners of the current era.

The American races-within-a-race have serious implications for both the U.S. power rankings and Olympic qualifying (more on that below). Plus, neither elite field is so top-heavy as to preclude the possibility of an American podium finish. So without further ado, let’s dive into the burning questions on everyone’s mind in the four days leading up to our Super Bowl Sunday.

Can anyone stop Hellen Obiri?

The marquee name in the women’s race is two-time NYC champ Hellen Obiri, back to try and win her third title in four years. With the withdrawal of Sifan Hassan earlier this fall, it feels like this is Obiri’s to lose. In the four years and eight marathons since her debut at this race in 2022, exactly four women total have beaten Obiri at the distance: Hassan, Tigst Assefa, Sharon Lokedi, and Sheila Chepkirui. The first three aren’t in the race, but Chepkirui has beaten Obiri before, on this course in 2024.

The difference, however, is that Obiri was coming back from a short buildup after the Olympics that year and Chepkirui has only one major title to Obiri’s four. That being said, Chepkirui won her spring marathonz—unlike Obiri—taking first in the Nagoya Women’s Marathon in Japan in March. The two Kenyans are 1-1 on both this course and over their marathoning careers, so this is a rubber match in more ways than one. The smart money’s on Obiri, but Chepkirui is not exactly a long shot by any means.

Will an American land on the podium?

On the men’s side, there are a number of fast entrants but no one truly stands head and shoulders above the crowd. Defending champ Benson Kipruto has the best recent resume, but he only finished third in Boston this spring. There are eight men with PBs between 2:02:16 and 2:04:56.

Most intriguingly, two of those eight are American. Zouhair Talbi, who was 55 seconds and two spots behind Kipruto in Boston, is the fourth fastest entrant in the field (if you count Boston’s point-to-point times). And American record holder Conner Mantz will take his second crack at NYC after finishing sixth in 2024. Mantz missed a spring marathon after getting stuck in a bit of an injury spin cycle, but last year he finished fourth in his record-setting run in Chicago, and a first WMM podium has to be high on both runner’s to-do lists.

This is the race to do it, too, as there aren’t a host of rabbits to take the 2:02 guys out hot and put the lead pack out of reach. A race that stays packed up until mile 16 or later, as NYC often does, will suit both Mantz and Talbi well, and if they can survive the final 5k through Central Park, they can pick off a critical place or two as runners who battled for the win pay the price.

How will the big debuts go?

Two of the brightest marathoning prospects in the game will be making hotly-anticipated debuts: American Weini Kelati and Swede Andreas Almgren. Both have already proven their mettle and then some over 10,000m and the half marathon, and both seem like the kind of runner who’ll thrive as the distance gets longer.

Kelati’s race, of course, will have all sorts of implications for the American Olympic Trials field, which doesn’t exactly look settled at the moment. 2024 Trials champ Fiona O’Keeffe pulled out of this race with an injury, American record holder Emily Sisson is currently pregnant, and Olympic bronze medalist Molly Seidel is having a heckuva time on the trails. Were Kelati to open with a run in the low 2:20s or be a factor in the top five, we could very well have a new favorite for St. Louis 2028.

Almgren has shown flashes of brilliance on the track, running 12:44.27 to win the 5000m at the Stockholm Diamond League in 2025 and front-running the European 10,000m title this year. But when he won the World Half title this fall in a European-record 58:06, it became clear that he’s barely scratched the surface of his true calling: the roads. Almgren is now the tenth fastest athlete of all time in the half, and the only athlete in the top 100 (yes, you read that right) born outside the continent of Africa. So it’s understandable that his marathon debut will be the most highly anticipated since Mo Farah—and maybe the most anticipated until the day we finally get Jakob Ingebrigtsen there.

Will we get our first Olympic qualifiers?

Coincidentally (or not, more likely), the qualifying window for the 2028 Olympic marathon opens Sunday. World Athletics has not announced the times required for qualification, but more importantly in the context of New York, a top-five finish at a Platinum Label race (which all World Marathon Majors are) will be considered an automatic qualifier.

That’s huge for the top Americans in the race in particular. Beyond Talbi, Mantz, and Kelati, others who probably have a giant “FIVE” drawn in Dry-Erase on their bathroom mirrors include 2:05 guys Ryan Ford and Joe Klecker, last year’s fifth-placer Annie Frisbee, and this year’s fifth-placer in Boston Jess McClain. Times generally go out the window in a race like New York anyway, but the appeal of stamping your LA28 qualifier within hours of the window open is obvious.

How will NYC affect the race for world #1?

As the final race on the World Marathon Major schedule, NYC often solidifies the final pecking order for the world’s best marathoners. This year’s London champs both have claims on world #1 that are hard to dispute. Sabastian Sawe made history with the world’s first sub-two and Tigst Assefa won her first of two WMMs this year. Assefa, who beat Obiri in London, is likely to maintain her pretty unbeatable resume unless Chepkirui or Obiri does something truly mind-boggling like run sub-2:15 in New York. But on the men’s side, no one has won more than one WMM yet this year, and if you’re a real freak who prizes consistency over flashy times, a winning run from Benson Kipruto, who finished third in Boston, or Deresa Geleta, who finished sixth in London, could move the needle.

If we’re being realistic, the real threat to Sawe’s claim comes from Boston champ John Korir, who’s set to defend his Valencia Marathon title in December. But strong runs from the top dogs in New York could certainly strengthen their claims to top-five rankings, either formally in the World Athletics sense or informally in the eyes of the public and newsletter writers everywhere.

Come hell or high water (or simply clouds and a bit of humidity), there will be plenty of narratives to follow in Sunday’s race. By the time the leaders hit Central Park, we may know a lot more about the cast and plotlines of the leadup to Los Angeles, both domestically and worldwide. The race itself and its outcomes are plenty interesting on their own, but this year’s battle in the Big Apple could set the stage for the next two years of marathoning in a big way.

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